Keywords
electricity market
short-term forecasting
forecast interval
deep learning neural networks
cost estimation
How to Cite
Abstract
The statistical analysis of the forecast error of the "day ahead" electricity supply volumes by the producers, which are included in the balancing group of the State Enterprise "Guaranteed Buyer”, was carried out. The distribution of forecast errors by hours of the day is determined. A simplified method for calculating the price and the total cost of the forecast error is described considering the various formulas for the cost of imbalances calculating. The potential for improving the accuracy of the forecast for increasing the permissible installed capacity of power plants with renewable energy sources with the technical means available in the power system to compensate for the power fluctuations is shown. Approbation of the methodology and calculation of quantitative indicators was carried out on real data of the total supply of renewable energy sources by producers, which were published by SE Energorynok. The calculations are of an estimate nature. Since the calculations are based on a “naive” assumption about the distribution of forecast errors, which depend on the structure of RES producers by types of primary energy carriers and specific meteorological conditions. Bibl. 11, fig. 5, tables 2.
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Copyright (c) 2020 I. Blinov, E. Parus ,V. Miroshnyk